Trade Prediction Markets from Your AI Agent with the Horizon Trader Skill

Prediction markets have exploded in popularity, offering a unique way to bet on real-world outcomes—from elections to crypto price movements. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi let you trade contracts that resolve based on whether an event happens. But managing positions, calculating optimal bet sizes, and monitoring risk across multiple markets? That's where things get tedious.

The Horizon Trader skill brings professional-grade prediction market trading to your Clawdbot agent. Check your portfolio, submit orders, compute Kelly-optimal sizing, run Monte Carlo simulations, and even execute cross-exchange arbitrage—all from natural conversation.

Who Is This For?

• Active prediction market traders who want to manage positions without switching between browser tabs
• Quant-curious users who want to apply Kelly criterion and risk management to their bets
• Polymarket/Kalshi power users looking for CLI-first workflow automation
• Arbitrage hunters spotting price discrepancies across exchanges

Installation

clawdhub install horizon-trader

You'll also need the Horizon SDK:

pip install horizon-sdk

Set your API key (get one from the Horizon platform):

export HORIZON_API_KEY="your-api-key-here"

Configuration

The skill reads from a few environment variables:

Start with paper mode to test your strategies without real money at risk.

Usage Examples

1. Check Your Portfolio Status

Ask your agent: "What's my current PnL on prediction markets?"

The skill runs:

python3 scripts/horizon.py status

You get back your current PnL, open orders, positions, and whether the kill switch is active.

2. Discover Markets

Ask: "Find prediction markets about Bitcoin hitting $150k"

python3 scripts/horizon.py discover polymarket "bitcoin 150k"
python3 scripts/horizon.py top-markets polymarket 10

Browse trending markets or search for specific topics across Polymarket and Kalshi.

3. Calculate Kelly-Optimal Position Size

Ask: "If I think there's a 70% chance this event happens and the market price is 55 cents, how much should I bet from a $2000 bankroll?"

python3 scripts/horizon.py kelly 0.70 0.55 2000

The Kelly criterion tells you the mathematically optimal bet size to maximize long-term growth while avoiding ruin.

4. Submit Orders with Risk Controls

Ask: "Buy 10 shares of YES at 55 cents on market XYZ, and set a stop-loss at 40 cents"

python3 scripts/horizon.py quote <market_id> buy 0.55 10
python3 scripts/horizon.py stop-loss <market_id> yes sell 10 0.40

The skill always confirms before submitting real orders—no accidental fat-finger trades.

5. Run Monte Carlo Risk Simulation

Ask: "Simulate my portfolio risk with 50,000 scenarios"

python3 scripts/horizon.py simulate 50000

See the distribution of possible outcomes for your current positions.

Pro Tips

Start in paper mode. Set HORIZON_EXCHANGE=paper until you're comfortable with the commands. Real money can disappear fast in prediction markets.

Use the kill switch for emergencies. The kill-switch on command cancels all open orders immediately—useful when markets move against you.

Monitor feed health. Stale price feeds can lead to bad trades. Check with:

python3 scripts/horizon.py feed-health 30

Analyze whale wallets. Curious what smart money is doing? Use wallet analytics:

python3 scripts/horizon.py wallet-positions 0x1234... 50 CURRENT
python3 scripts/horizon.py market-flow 0xabc... 1000 10

Fractional Kelly is safer. The full Kelly criterion can be aggressive. Use the fraction parameter (e.g., 0.5 for half-Kelly) for more conservative sizing.

Advanced: Arbitrage

When the same event trades at different prices across exchanges:

python3 scripts/horizon.py arb will-btc-hit-100k kalshi polymarket 0.48 0.52 10

This executes an atomic cross-exchange arbitrage—buy low on one, sell high on the other.

Conclusion

The Horizon Trader skill turns your Clawdbot into a prediction market command center. Whether you're casually tracking election odds or running sophisticated trading strategies, having CLI-first access to Polymarket and Kalshi means faster execution and better risk management.

Links:

• Horizon Trader on ClawHub
• Polymarket
• Kalshi

Remember: prediction markets involve real financial risk. Always start with paper trading and never bet more than you can afford to lose.